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20230327152134

20230327152135

The building materials market may fluctuate in a narrow range this week

Release time：

2023-02-17

According to the preliminary statistics of the Central Bank, the increase of social financing scale in January 2022 was 6.17 trillion yuan, 984.2 billion yuan more than the same period of the previous year, and that was far more than the market expected value of 5.4 trillion yuan. Although the loan flow to the leading central state-owned enterprises had little effect on private enterprises, the intention of using infrastructure to drive economic growth was obvious. It indicates that the stimulus measures are starting to work.

1. According to the preliminary statistics of the Central Bank, the increase of social financing scale in January 2022 was 6.17 trillion yuan, 984.2 billion yuan more than the same period of the previous year, which was far more than the market expected value of 5.4 trillion yuan. Although the flow of loans to leading central state-owned enterprises had little effect on private enterprises, the intention of using infrastructure to drive economic growth was obvious. It indicates that the stimulus measures are starting to work. The main investment is in infrastructure, green finance, inclusive finance. The new infrastructure expenditure is an area that can increase or even create new forms of consumption. The reason is“ High multiplier effect”. According to the Securities Daily on Friday, more than 13 provinces have launched plans to build 425000 5G base stations in 2022. It is expected that some dilapidated buildings will be demolished before the new buildings, which also triggered a rebound in the companies dealing with explosive materials. The explosive manufacturer Poly Union Chemical Holding Group Co., Ltd. (002037) has risen by 10% for eight consecutive trading days

2. The People's Bank of China is asking economists to disagree on whether to cut interest rates for the second consecutive month to boost the economy

After the interest rate cut of 10 basis points last month, the interest rate fell again, which would be a radical step for the People's Bank of China, indicating that the concern about the economic growth prospects has intensified, because we hope to have a stable background when we hold a key leadership meeting in the fourth quarter. The interest rate cut will also widen the policy differences with major central banks such as the Federal Reserve, which is now expected to raise interest rates faster than before. Early data showed that manufacturing activity slowed down, a new round of virus outbreak led to a downturn in holiday consumption, and real estate sales fell further. The National Bureau of Statistics will not release official data on major indicators such as investment, retail sales and industrial production in January and February until the middle of March, due to the seasonal distortion of the Lunar New Year holiday

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